my dads gona print it for me. My mom likes deeppantry thing alredy. thnx." Ryan

Comments & Questions about the 2010-2011 Youth Futures Essays

"Will the new book [Standing on Your Own Two Feet] have things people my age [12] can do? i think my mom needs help feeding our family." Joseph, 12

Yes, Joseph, I write for Young Adults, roughly ages 10-20, but some people younger and older also. But I have to warn you: there will be no quick and easy fixes in my book, because there just AREN'T any quick and easy fixes. Even so, I hope you will find some ideas in it that will help in your situation.

Is Our Civilization Self-Limiting?

"Yes, we have made mistakes, population explosion seems scary, as does the fact that many countries may just go bust. Yet, perhaps we will learn to survive in new ways, maybe find out how to harness the sea water better for power, or the solar energy...... Let us see. Nuclear energy as we have seen in the case of Japan can cause havoc."
-- Lubna, India, GoodReads.com

"How soon do you think the stuff in the blog is going to happen?" Danielle, 15, New Zealand

I cannot predict the future, Danielle. Anyone who says they are doing that is, in my opinion, lying. What we can do is look at the forces at work in the present that might affect the future, and prepare ourselves for the possible futures that seem most likely.

It is fairly easy to guess that certain things will probably happen in the future, not so easy to guess when. The forces and trends that I talk about in the Youth Futures blog are all very real, and many people are talking about them all over the world. We might even be able to say that force x usually leads to result y after about z months or years. But there could be some other force that cancels force x, or causes result y to arrive faster or more slowly. Also, we may not understand the process well enough, and a different result could come to pass.

The important thing to consider is something I wrote about just recently in the blog. Risk = Probability x Severity. If the probability is high, it's a good idea to prepare even if the severity (danger level) isn't too bad. Carry some lunch money when going to town. You'll probably get hungry, and even though you'd live without it, your day will be more fun with a snack.

But if the severity is high, you might want to prepare even if the probability is low. First aid kit. A spare tire and tools in the car. Fire extinguisher.

The future is hard to guess, the timing of it almost impossible. But we have the power to prepare for it in many ways.

The Myth of Progress

"The danger is that we may feel that nuclear energy is cheap and plentiful and we may end up blowing our entire Planet into oblivion."
-- Lubna, India, GoodReads.com

"I'm reading your youth futures blog and the same stuff other places and I'm freaking out. I need to do something about it. Please tell me there's something we can do!!" Danielle, 15, New Zealand

Sorry, Danielle, but the problems I explore in the Youth Futures blog are too big for a mere mortal like me to know the solutions. These problems constitute the "human condition." They were not invented by your parents' generation, but emerge from human nature itself, and so have been with us, in one form or another, to one degree or another, for as long as there have been human beings.

But there are certainly things you can do. Continue to educate yourself and anyone on your "team" (close friends, boyfriend, maybe your family). Use your powerful human imagination to picture yourself (and your "team") dealing with one of the problems. (Only you can guess which ones might come into your life.) Imagine solutions. Do the solutions need skills or resources that you don't yet have?

Is there anything we can do to completely wipe out the problems and take us back to some wonderful time in the past? 2000 maybe? (Your parents might pick 1985, and your grandparents might pick 1955.) I don't think so, and trying would probably be like sticking our heads in the sand and failing to do anything that would really help.

Please consider me a member of your "team," and let me know what ideas you come up with.

Why Can't the Economy Keep Growing?

"And what can your readers do, by way of tiny baby steps, to mitigate the problem?"
-- Lubna, India, GoodReads.com
(J. Z. Colby responds on the Youth Futures blog page)

Keeping a Low Profile

"Wow, you have really 'hit the nail on the head' so to speak. I couldn't agree more with everything you have said."
-- Chenice, UK, GoodReads.com

Money Without Jobs

"Enterpreneurship will also be the way to go. Vocational education will help a lot. People will always need plumbers, electricians, nursing staff, teachers - some professions are a must and jobs will also be easier to get in these areas."
-- Lubna, India, GoodReads.com

"Im reading the blog. Do you really think grownups would leave a messedup world?" Running Cat, Nebador citizen, 14

They wouldn't do it on purpose, RC. At each step, they would be doing what they thought was best for themselves and for the world. One of the big theories of economics is that there's an "invisible hand" that always guides civilization in the right direction if everyone is free to make decisions that are best for them (called "enlightened self-interest"). Others point to our two world wars and the Great Depression as evidence that this theory doesn't work.

Part of the problem is that people have short memories. Civilizations remember things longer, but dusty books sitting in libraries about times past are often overlooked. For example, in the Great Depression of the 1930s, we learned that deposit banks and investment banks should be separate. In the 1990s we, as a civilization, forgot that lesson, and allowed banks to do both things again. That was part of the cause of the current recession.

It appears to be natural for all civilizations to go through cycles. Many of the problems in the world today were experienced by the Romans between 300 and 400 AD. Many other problems are completely new. The simple fact is that a human civilization is too big and complex for any leader or group of leaders to understand, so we do the best we can. Sometimes it works, and sometimes the problems are too much for us. The Roman empire ended in 410 AD.

Recap of Threats to Young Adults

"Yes, it is quite true. People should look at vocational training as well. The demand for such jobs will continue."
-- Lubna, India, GoodReads.com

Recap of Threats to Young Adults

"Unfortunate but true. Our situation in the UK is very dire and it's worrying how little employment there is. People are getting First class degrees at Oxford and Cambridge and are ending up on benefits because there are no jobs. It's scary."
-- Chenice, UK, GoodReads.com

Free Energy!

"We need to learn to give instead to TAKE, TAKE, TAKE!!!"
-- Lubna, India, GoodReads.com

Free Energy!

"why is it not possible to collect rain water? instead of it flowing down street drains!!! the more tarmac, cement, etc the less green areas and less water getting to the water table."
-- Jenny Quinlan, Ireland, GoodReads.com

"Do you think the youth today, thinks praise is their birthright? Do they overestimate themselves?" Lubna, India

Wanting praise (and taking all they can get) is natural for young people, and that state of craving external validation does not necessarily go away when we achieve any certain numerical age. It is also completely natural for us humans to "take for granted," and assume it to be our birthright, anything we like and get used to. That's why it's so hard for governments to trim entitlements.

And yes, youth are very good at overestimating themselves, and that's another youthful quality that few people grow out of. In adulthood, it leads to the "it can't happen to us, we're different" attitude as we observe problems in other parts of the world. Historical examples can be found of empires that temporarily insulted themselves from events affecting the world outside their borders, but no examples exist of empires that did so for long.

Free Energy!
"Kids aren't stupid. i mean my friends. We know its not free never was. I mean it is from mother nature like you said but then its not."
-- Clarissa, 12, Alabama, Nebador Citizen

Risk = Probability x Severity

"Radiation from Japan has been found in Irish milk! Think about it!"
-- Jenny Quinlan, Ireland, GoodReads.com

Just in Time?

"Indian citizens are now wide awake to the perils of nuclear power. They are at a cross roads -- no power or nuclear power? The debate goes on."
-- Lubna, India, GoodReads.com

Just in Time?

"The PM's of France and Germany are now learning to there cost that nuclear power is unsafe. They are both about to be ex-PM's!"
-- Jenny Quinlan, Ireland, GoodReads.com

"Why do grown-ups have so much trouble figuring out whats gonna happen in the future and doing something about it?" William, Nebador citizen, 17

A paraphrase of William's question has been posted on 30 August 2010 in the Youth Futures blog.

Who ya gonna call?

"France and Germany shut their plants immedaitely, it took 2 weeks for Uk and Selafield lant similar years to the one in Japan stays working??!!"
-- Jenny Quinlan, Ireland, GoodReads.com

Earthquakes, tsunamis, nuclear meltdowns ... Are the "End Times" coming?

"Couldn't agree more. We've had plagues and wars where mankind was saying it's the end of times. Bible prophecies have gone on centuries. If God wanted to end us, he'd just blow up the sun."
-- Richard MacLeod, California, GoodReads.com

Did we build our own trap?

"Water may soon be the new oil. I think wars will now happen over water!"
-- Lubna, India, GoodReads.com

"In your essay about young adults, why do you bring up churches? It seems you have a bone to pick." Caroline, New York

I, and many other people, have bones to pick with organized religion. Piles of bones.

But in the essay you mentioned, the important point is that we can only begin to understand young adults (ages 10 - 20) if we set aside our "prescriptions," our "shoulds" and "oughts," long enough to gain a "description" of what they are really like. Organized religions have great trouble with this, but it's what a therapist has to do when he or she sits down in a room with a young person: see what is REALLY going on (after twenty or thirty adults have given their opinions, most of them wrong) so that a path toward mental healing and/or constitutional strengthening can (hopefully) be found.

In the story itself, the medieval culture where the story begins helps us gain this perspective. In that culture, we can "allow" Sata to leave home and begin a career at age 10, we can "allow" Neti and Miko, 15 and 16, to be engaged because of the Hell they've lived through. We can see, in that culture, what some kids can accomplish. It is much harder to see the same thing in our own culture because we react as the culture tells us to react, which is generally to deny that young adults can do anything.

Once we have "allowed" the characters to become real people, with youthful weaknesses but depths of courage and potential, the rest of the story can unfold.

Too Slow to See?

"It may be difficult to look and decipher the root cause of problems, but it is essential. Without understanding this, there can be no effective solution, or the solution that is conjured up would be nothing else but a knee jerk reaction. Sometimes it is tough to admit to one's mistakes, but this is so vital."
-- Lubna, India, GoodReads.com

Do animals have souls?

"I don't think science has got to the stage of answering this yet! Maybe the rigid way science deals with things needs changing first? It's a bit like the hadron collider i bet God/higher being is having a laugh at science! lol"
-- Jenny Quinlan, Ireland, GoodReads.com

Do animals have souls?

"I love the concept of animals having souls."
-- Lubna, India, GoodReads.com

"That stuff in the blog is scary, but the more i think about it the more i see the CAT in me slipping thru shadows and being ok maybe even having fun. My dad reads stuff like that and he said its cool i found a place i can read it and not be bored. Thanks."
-- Felix, Nebador citizen, 13

Will 2011 be like 2008?

"Safe public transport, if available, and feasible, should always be used. Not only does it save your own money, it adds that extra drop to make the world greener."
-- Lubna, India, GoodReads.com

"What about Greek myths? They're just made up, right?" Tabitha, Nebador citizen, 11

Not at all, Tabitha. Here's something I just wrote for the Book Three Deep Learning Notes:

"Myths are narratives that contain facts, history, memories, values, and lessons that people need, in order to make sense of the universe and pass on their culture. Myths contain much "truth," but not everything in them needs to be literally true."

The ancient Greeks were very intelligent, but they lived in a world with many things they didn't understand. Their myths expressed their best guesses about the ways the universe worked. One of our myths, the myth of Eternal Progress that I mentioned to Françoise, was our best guess about why everything was always getting bigger, better, faster, and richer all during the 19th and 20th centuries.

"I don't like myths any more than you but how can anyone, short of God, write a story without human myths?" Françoise, 15

Very good point. I'm not God, so the best I can hope for is to challenge a few myths that seem especially harmful right now. Just as an example, young people like you are about to inherit a world that is slamming up against resource limits. Therefore, the myth of "Eternal Progress" that we came to believe in the last century or two is becoming dangerous to our survival. Neither the human population, nor anything else physical, can grow indefinitely on a finite planet. I comment on many other human myths in the story, and in the Deep Learning Notes. Please feel free to send questions or comments about any certain myths that are interesting to you.

Lullabies

"I have stopped watching the news ,as it's mostly negative at the moment and just makes me angry! at the moment i think Nebador is keeping me sane! lol we could use Ilika teaching the bankers basic math!"
-- Jenny Quinlan, Ireland, GoodReads.com

Privatized or Socialized?

"Well said. However there is a new concept that has crept in public-private partnership. In other words the government and the private group step together to create something, such as toll roads. The goverment provides the land, capital is provided by the private sector, which also builds and operates the toll road. Toll charges are decided by both parties and enable the private player to recoup its costs and earn 'reasonable' profits. Public Pvt partnership has taken roots in India. Perhaps this too will have its own pitfalls or perhaps not. We need to wait and see."
-- Lubna, India, GoodReads.com

"Tnx for the future blog! Grownups dont think kids should know about bad thing but we have to live with them when we grow up so it isnt fair."
-- Tabitha, Nebador citizen, 11

Following the Mysteries

"Water is another resource that will become priceless. Today we are already seeing wars fought over land - especially border areas, next we may see wars over river sources and where the rivers can flow. Interesting times, these."
-- Lubna, India, GoodReads.com

"What's going to happen with global warming?" Terri, Nebador citizen, 12

I wish I knew, Terri. Not counting the politically and fear-motivated denial, the question seems to be whether climate change will occur gradually, over many decades or even centuries, or if some "tipping point" will be reached that will cause a sudden jump in climate. As you may know, "global warming" does not mean that the weather will get hotter everywhere. It does mean, scientists agree, that the weather will become more extreme in most places. That could be very bad for agriculture.

Many religious stories tell of the god or gods giving people "stewardship" or "dominion" over the Earth. We have not really had to do that until now. I suspect that the process of becoming good stewards of the Earth will really help us to grow as a civilization.

"Why do you think the future might be harder than the past?" anonymous

The author doesn't pretend to know anything for sure, but many forward-thinking economists are starting to take a hard look at our economic system, and are seeing that it only runs well when energy (oil, electricity, etc.) are pretty cheap. A number of things are causing the prices of oil and other sources of energy to go up: depletion, difficulty of extraction, war, environmental problems, and others. If this trend continues, young people may inherit a world with many fewer jobs and other opportunities.